Validation of the space weather modeling framework using groundbased magnetometers

[1] Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can disrupt power grid operations, causing significant interference for many people; therefore, predictions of ground-based magnetic perturbations and their time derivatives are quite important. This study quantifies how well the University of Michigan’s Global MHD code predicts approximately 150 ground-based magnetometer traces for a number of storm-time intervals. It is found that in order to accurately represent the magnetic perturbation, Biot-Savart integrals over the entire hemisphere are needed, especially when calculating the vertical component. The 4 May 1998 storm is examined in detail. The code compares well with some stations, quantified by a normalized root mean squared error and cross correlation, while missing even the general trends for other stations. When multiple magnetometer station perturbations are averaged together, the model does an adequate job in the north and vertical components but reverses the trends in the eastward component. The code does significantly better when comparing an AL-like index but does not have as strong a variation as the actual data. Comparison of dB/dt in a wide window rather than simultaneously shows better model performance in capturing events but worse in yielding false alarms. It is further found that the MHD code models the magnetic perturbations better in the summer hemisphere than in the winter hemisphere.